Forget standing in line at security checkpoints.  In 2020, you’ll be able to simply walk through an area and the security checkpoint will know if you’re planning something nefarious.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is developing a system called Future Attribute Screening Technology, or FAST for short. The system uses cameras to detect slight alterations in pupil sizes, blink rate and even direction of gaze. A laser radar called BioLIDAR measures heart rate and changes between heartbeats. The BioLIDAR can even monitor a persons respiration and track movements in the face, neck, and cheeks. Stressed out? A thermal camera will pick up on this too by gauging changes in the skin temperature.

Homeland Security ran a test in September of 140 volunteers using a FAST prototype. The system was very accurately able to pick out people with hostile intent.  “We’re still very early on in this research, but it is looking very promising,” says DHS science spokesman John Verrico. “We are running at about 78% accuracy on mal-intent detection, and 80% on deception.” Homeland Security also selected a group of 23 attendees to be civilian “accomplices” in their test. They were each given a “disruptive device” to carry through the portal and, unlike the other attendees, were conscious that they were on a mission.

They ran a test of 140 people who volunteered to look suspicious.  Of course you are going to pick people out with that.  A 78-80% accuracy rate is also not good enough.  How much of these accuracy rates are false positives?  Is it the 20-23% that is inaccurate or is it higher?

“It does not predict who you are and make a judgment, it only provides an assessment in situations,” said Burns. “It analyzes you against baseline stats when you walk in the door, it measures reactions and variations when you approach and go through the portal.”

So, it assesses that, because you have to pee and are desperately looking for a restroom, that you might be a terrorist.  It assesses that, because you temporarily lost your spouse and are frantically looking for him/her, you must be a terrorist.  It assesses that, because you are a bit nervous about flying, you must be a terrorist.  It assesses you as a terrorist because you like to wear shorts in winter and your heart rate is higher than everyone else who happens to be dressed in pants and jackets.  Anything that makes you stand out from your fellow passengers will likely make you look guilty.

Unless this system works 100% of the time, it is useless.  You can’t have a 99% accuracy rate because that puts you into a false positive paradox.  This system would also suffer from the prosecutor’s fallacy.  You are working from a model whereby the incidence of a condition (terrorist on a plane) is far smaller than the false positive rate of a test.

We are not any safer at the airport now than we were pre-9/11.  The TSA is merely putting on a show of security theater to show us that they are doing something, rather than admitting that they suck at their jobs and haven’t a clue how to make things better.  Guns still get through airport screenings.  Gunpowder gets through airport screenings.

We need more, highly trained individuals to spot suspicious behavior.  A computer cannot tell that you are looking for a toilet and need to pee.  A highly trained individual can pick that out, but a computer will have you wetting yourself as you walk down to the interrogation room.  The computer systems are being put in place because everyone has been convinced that machines are the magical apparatus to detecting everything on the planet.  While the machines have their uses, somethings a good, old-fashioned human works better.